JCURVE EFFECT

A type of diagram where the curve falls at the outset and eventually rises to a point higher than the starting point, suggesting the letter J. While a J-curve can apply to data in a variety of fields, such as medicine and political science, the J-curve effect is most notable in both economics and private equity funds; after a certain policy or investment is made, an initial loss is followed by a significant gain.

An example of the J-curve effect is seen in economics when a country's trade balance initially worsens following a devaluation or depreciation of its currency. The higher exchange rate will at first correspond to more costly imports and less valuable exports, leading to a bigger initial deficit or a smaller surplus. Due to the competitive, relatively low-priced exports, however, a country's exports will start to increase. Local consumers will also purchase less of the more expensive imports and focus on local goods. The trade balance eventually improves to better levels compared to before devaluation.

In private equity funds, the J-curve effect occurs when funds experience negative returns for the first several years. This is a common experience, as the early years of the fund include capital drawdowns and an investment portfolio that has yet to mature. If the fund is well managed, it will eventually recover from its initial losses and the returns will form a J-curve: losses in the beginning dip down below the initial value, and later returns show profits above the initial level.